Rural Voters and Farmers Are Turning on Trump — Here's What the Numbers Show

For decades, rural America has been the foundation of Republican political power, delivering the wide margins that carried Donald Trump to two presidential victories. But a new round of polling data suggests that foundation is cracking — and farmers, facing some of the worst financial conditions in a generation, are a big reason why.

A Fox News poll released this week found that Trump's net approval rating among rural voters has dropped 34 points since early 2025, swinging from +20 to -14. Among rural white voters specifically, the slide is nearly as large — a 33-point reversal, from +27 to -6. Both groups now sit at their lowest approval levels recorded in this polling series.

What the Poll Found

The survey was conducted May 15–18 among 1,002 registered voters across the country. It was jointly run by two polling firms — one aligned with Democrats, one with Republicans — using a combination of phone calls and online responses, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Trump's overall approval rating came in at 39 percent, just one point above the lowest mark recorded during his second term. But the sharper story is what's happening within groups that have historically supported him most reliably.

On the economy, just 29 percent of all voters approved of Trump's handling, while 71 percent disapproved. Rural voters tracked nearly the same: 30 percent approval, 70 percent disapproval. On inflation specifically, only 24 percent of all voters approved — the lowest score of any issue tested in the poll. Among rural voters, that number was 28 percent.

Even border security, one of Trump's strongest policy areas throughout his second term, has slipped into negative territory overall for the first time, with 49 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving nationally. Rural voters remain slightly positive on the issue at 54–45, but the overall trend is downward.

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who runs the poll alongside Democratic counterpart Chris Anderson, described the erosion as meaningful even within Trump's own party.

"Despite consistently strong GOP support, the president's numbers are leaking a bit," Shaw said. "Make no mistake; it's all about affordability. Independents jumped ship in 2025, and now non-MAGA Republicans and other core constituencies are wavering."

Farmers Are Feeling It Most

The numbers reflect a real and worsening financial crisis playing out on American farms. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, farm bankruptcies rose 46 percent in 2025 compared to the year before — a staggering increase driven by rising production costs and tightening margins.

Those pressures have grown even sharper in 2026. The escalation of conflict involving Iran has pushed up diesel and fertilizer prices, two of the biggest operating costs for most farming operations. With commodity prices already under pressure from reduced Chinese demand for U.S. exports like soybeans, many farmers are now caught between higher costs and weaker revenue.

Willis Nelson, a Louisiana farmer, described the situation in direct terms, explaining that his family has had to reduce fertilizer use because of what it costs.

"We're not financially able" to operate as normal, Nelson said, adding that his multigenerational farm is now facing the prospect of bankruptcy. "It's tough, you know, very tough on us."

Ohio farmer Fred Yoder offered a similarly stark assessment, describing daily operating costs and the dramatic rise in key inputs like potash, a common fertilizer.

"It's costing us about $1,500 of cash per day to run two tractors," Yoder said. "I spent many years buying potash for $90 a ton, and now it's $670 to $700 a ton. Our big problem is the input costs. I haven't seen anything this bad since the 1980s."

Yoder's comments were shared by Farm Action from an interview with US Farm Report.

Adding to the tension, Trump's recent trip to Beijing included comments defending Chinese purchases of American farmland. The president argued that restricting foreign ownership of agricultural land would drive down property values — a position that has alarmed many farmers who are already uneasy about foreign control of U.S. farm assets.

The White House Pushes Back

Administration officials disputed the significance of the polling, characterizing the results as a temporary dip rather than a meaningful shift in voter sentiment.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said the U.S. economy has remained "resilient" under Trump and pointed to future legislative action as a reason for optimism.

"As this agenda continues taking effect, and as Congress passes more of the president's healthcare and housing affordability agenda, the best is yet to come in the second Trump term," Desai said.

Spokesman Davis Ingle cited Trump's 2024 election victory as the more meaningful measure of public support, saying "the ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda."

Ingle added that the administration is "working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more," and described current results as "just the beginning" of what the president's agenda will deliver.

Whether that message resonates with farmers watching their operating costs climb and their bankruptcy risk rise remains an open question — one that could carry significant weight as midterm elections approach later this year.